How Do European Teams Qualify For The World Cup Soccer Predictions – How Can You Beat the Bookies?

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Soccer Predictions – How Can You Beat the Bookies?

While the bookies are constantly improving their football prediction methods and trying to avoid paying out, we can still find holes in their predictions. The question is how. There is no one million dollar answer. However, there are two ways that will allow you to beat the bookies. One way is to analyze immeasurable matchmaking information. Another way is to improve the statistical prediction models used by bookies.

The first method requires you to analyze data as a type of matching or priority, which is not used in statistical models. Among the most obvious factors that could influence the outcome of a football match are:

  • Matching type which can be an international/national league, cup, or friendly match. Particularly profitable for you are the cup finals, where the media pick favorites and the more informed can profit from betting on the high-priced underground teams.
  • Corresponding priority. Each team must define its priority for the upcoming games, as team resources are limited. European national cups are good examples for the best teams of low priority games.
  • Game time important, as football predictions are usually wrong at the start and end of the season.
  • Players injuries, illnesses and transfers especially in the case of key players. Bookmaker odds are usually calculated before this information is available.
  • European Leagues – predictable and unpredictable. Italian, Norwegian, French and Spanish alliances are considered predictable. The unpredictable ones are the English and German leagues, especially at the start and end of the season.
  • Other factors are pitch conditions, team managers, match attendance, weather conditions and, of course, pure chance.

Analyzing all that information for each match would be a complex and time-consuming task. The alternative is to use advanced statistical prediction methods, which are an improvement on shopper prediction models.

Why can their models be further improved? First, when carefully analyzing bookmakers’ predictions, it is easy to notice that their models are based on average statistics. Low odds usually correspond to teams with high table positions and vice versa. It is clear that the accuracy of their models suffers when team skills change. Therefore, by taking into account the dynamics of team skills, you can increase your profit by placing a bet on high-priced underdogs.

Second, bookmaker models do not differentiate between the attacking and defensive strengths of football teams and do not consider that football teams choose different strategies when playing at home or away. Once you learn how to differentiate between attacking and defensive strengths, you can easily predict goal totals and beat the bookies on under/over bets.

Statistical models developed over the last few years explain the results of historical matching in terms of skill and strategy change. Bookmakers do not use such advanced models. Properly designed and optimized time-dependent models can predict as many as 70% of pairings, outperforming the much lower accuracy bookmakers’ predictions.

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