How Much Does A World Cup Soccer Ball Cost Football Betting – End-of-Season Games

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Football Betting – End-of-Season Games

Everyone loves a trier, especially when it comes to giving up your parodies. There’s nothing more charming to customers than realizing that your selection wasn’t switched off and you haven’t even had a fair run for your money.

General television coverage and greater transparency in the betting exchanges have raised awareness of the ‘unproven’ issue in horse racing, but those who compete with football also need to be on their guard. All is clearly not well in the world of football, judging by the recent match-fixing scandal in Germany involving referee Robert Hoyzer, ongoing investigations into some Italian results and irregular betting patterns on European matches and unclear international.

Thankfully, the consistency of results in the bigger leagues (and especially in England) shows that there is no reason for a punter’s lack of confidence. The main problem – as in horse racing – lies around the edges, in those games (or races) that are not exposed to the full glare of media attention and where skulduggery is less likely to arise doubt

Everyone is trying very hard

However, my research suggests that the ‘non-trier’ issue rears its ugly head towards the end of the season, even in the major leagues. Most of the leagues are competitive enough to ensure they reach the top in the battles for championships, places in Europe and safety from relegation.

But, inevitably, some teams have nothing left to play for in the final weeks of the season, and that’s where problems can arise.

The final weekends of a league season consist of three types of fixtures:

1. Matches between two teams with nothing to play for.

2. Games between two teams with something to play for.

3. Matches between one team with something to play for and one team with nothing to play for.

Out of focus

Neither team’s commitment can be taken for granted in the first category, so the most sensible betting strategy towards the end of the season is to focus on categories two and three.

Matches in the second category should be assessed using your usual techniques. (Anyone who doesn’t know needs to read our football betting articles on inside-edge-mag.co.uk – Ed), but the best betting opportunities are often in category three, where there is always potential on for someone who doesn’t try ‘.

This is not to suggest that anything controlled happens in these games, just that a small drop in focus by one team can make all the difference in a competitive league like the English Premier League.

There may be many reasons for this drop in focus – including the general perception that some players are ‘on holiday’ before the end of the season. It is equally likely, given the demands of modern football, that a player who has been carrying an injury will be rested once his team has nothing left to play for, or there may be some relief in training sessions. Whatever the reasons, our results at the bottom of this article show that a team with something to play for is more likely to win a game against a team with nothing to play for.

Across the top three divisions in England and the major European leagues we analyzed (Spanish Liga, German Bundesliga and French Ligue 1), these games typically produce a 50-60% win rate for the team with something to play for, and a 20-30% win rate for the team with nothing to play for. The statistics vary slightly from year to year and from league to league, but overall they are pretty consistent.

It is a bone of contention that such figures offer concrete proof of the effect it does not prove, but there is one crucial piece of supporting evidence that changes the issue for me. If the results were unrelated to one team’s pressing need for points in such games, we would expect a higher win rate among higher ranked teams than those struggling near the bottom, as that which has been happening during the rest of the season. Indeed, the win rate of teams struggling to avoid relegation is unusually high in such games at the end of the season – almost equal to the win rate achieved by teams at the top of the table going in pursuit of titles, places in Europe. or second chance slots.

Fight to survive

For example, the last five English Premier League seasons have produced a 55% win rate for teams with something to play for. That figure does not vary, regardless of whether the team is in the top six or the bottom six.

It’s a similar story in other leagues, although the win rate of teams threatened with relegation in such games tends to be slightly lower overall than that achieved by teams near the top of the table.

So, do these stats alone offer a good betting opportunity? The simple answer is no, but there are some fine-tuning touches that can give these figures a nice edge.

Let’s look at the big picture first. A 55% win rate would give a tidy profit margin if the average odds available were even, but that is unlikely to be the case in games where one team has something to play for and the other doesn’t .

Taking the games that fell into this category last season in our leagues in question, a level bet at stake on every team with something to play for would have brought a small loss. This was, in part, due to a lower than average win rate by these teams last season, but a more significant factor is the fewer chances that the contenders are asked to accept on such teams .

How to beat the odds

The bookies generally consider the ‘nothing to play for’ syndrome when pricing end-of-season fixtures, although some slip through the net. If you’re good at making your own book on games, you can spot these games – otherwise, you’ll find it hard to profit blindly on the teams that have something to play for.

The counter argument, of course, is that there is value in backing against these sides, given that teams with nothing to play for will be available at artificial odds in such games. This doesn’t hold water, though, due to the lower win rate of these teams. The problem for punters, as outlined earlier, is whether these teams will try hard enough – the evidence suggests, on the whole, they won’t.

How, then, can we beat the odds? Well, a little more research into the statistics gives more flesh to the general assumptions that are often made about end of season games.

Starting at the top, the league champions’ end-of-season records are very revealing. There is clear evidence that once a title is numerically secured, there is a widespread tendency for champions to take their foot off the gas. Last season, for example, the Spanish and German champions were confirmed with two games to play – Valencia and Werder Bremen, the respective winners, promptly lost their last two games.

This is far from an isolated example. In 2001, Manchester United lost their last three games after running away with the title, although it must be said that they had finished with four straight wins when in the same position the previous season.

On the whole, however, the record of already crowned champions suggests that they tend to ease off once the race is won. In the leagues analyzed here, the win rate of champions during the season is usually more than 60%.

Once the title is secured, however, this drops to an average of 57% over the last five seasons. And the drop is even more dramatic in games where they face a team with something to play for – their win rate then averages just 45%.

Tons of profit

In general, therefore, it is worth opposing champions who have already been crowned. Last season, in the leagues covered here, this approach would have resulted in a 24% break-even profit. If you had focused on games where the opposing team still had something to play for, the champions’ strike rate would have been 100% and the return a staggering 125% for the flat bets.

The only caveat is to be wary of any factor that can cause the champions to keep the pressure on – one example is Arsenal last season, when they were Premier League champions with four games to go but keen to maintain their unbeaten record. They did, but with just a 50% win rate in their last four games (two wins, two draws).

Another factor might be when a lower division team is chasing a landmark like 100 points – that was the case with Wigan Athletic in the old Division Two in 2003, when they reached three figures with two wins and a draw, even though they had already are champions.

Knowing that champions relax once they have nothing to play for, it’s easy to assume that already relegated teams must be even more likely to do this. Again, the reality is more complicated.

Bottom out

Overall, in the leagues analyzed here, relegated teams have a 23% win rate after being mathematically doomed – quite close to the average expected of relegation zone teams over the course of the season . In other words, they don’t fall apart once all hope is gone.

In fact, relegated teams have a surprisingly good home record in the final weeks of the season. On average, they manage a fairly even split of wins, draws and losses at home and in which of the leagues do their home losses outweigh the combined number of wins and draws – meaning that relegated teams are always worth looking at at Asian disadvantage at home, as they rarely, if ever, give up on their opponents.

Where they perform very poorly is away from home. Even more obviously, they are usually lambs to the slaughter (home or away) against teams that still have something to play for. Their losing rate in such games is 70% and, in the last five seasons, not a single relegated team recorded a single win in this type of game in the top leagues of France, England and Germany.

That 70% loss rate equates to the likelihood of their opponents being around the 2/5 or 4/9 mark. The bookies are noisy about such teams, although you could have made a profit last season against the relegated teams in such games. With additional selectivity about the odds you are willing to take (no less than 1/2, say), the potential exists to make money on these games.

Mid-table teams are an area to tread carefully. While the stats show that punters can generally count on sides scraping for top places or battling relegation, this is not the case with teams pushed into mid-table for the final games of the season , with no motivation to move up and no fear. of dropping a few places.

The last word

In the leagues analyzed here, the mid-table teams’ win rate in their finals doesn’t seem too bad, averaging 33%, which is roughly in line with their overall seasonal record.

The picture is not so rosy, however, when the figures are narrowed down to games against teams with something to play for. Safe mid-table teams’ win rate drops to 26% and their loss rate rises to 49% (from 41% overall).

In the end, end of season betting all comes down to what’s available. Valuing these games is a difficult process, and it is impossible to find hard and fast rules about when to bet or what odds to accept. An appreciation of the underlying statistics is important, however, because end-of-season games are not governed by the usual rules of form and are in many cases a law unto themselves. The one golden rule is: make sure you know your choice will try.

More Football Betting Articles

  • Football Betting – End of season games
  • Football Betting – Betting on the run

Submitted By Q

Dennis Publishing

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