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Sports Arbitrage Trading – A Practical Minicourse – Part Three
How do I position arbs to trade?
There are 2 factors that identify an arbitrage trading opportunity
1. The event must have a limited number of possible outcomes
Ideally, the event you are betting on should have either 2 or 3 possible outcomes.
For example, the event may be a head-to-head contest, such as a tennis or snooker match, where only one of the players can win. Or you might consider a game of cricket or football, where there are three possible outcomes including a draw/match.
There are exceptions, where arbs become available in events with more than three results, and they can be very profitable, but you will find your most regular arbs in events as described above.
2. There should be a sufficient percentage margin in your favour
When you’re starting out, it’s probably best to limit your betting to opportunities that yield 2.0% or more. This will allow you a margin of error as you learn, and any mistakes will likely lead to a break-even situation where you may have to sacrifice your profits.
However, as you grow in experience, you will be able to consider ALL situations, including the THOUSANDS of 1%-2% opportunities that occur every month. While 8%-15% juicier arbs, which appear a few times a week, will give you great bonuses, the smaller, much more frequent ones will constantly add to your bottom line.
So – that’s it. You find the event, do the math, place the bets, and earn a guaranteed profit regardless of the outcome. Once you’ve streamlined your processes, it couldn’t be much simpler.
The skill is finding suitable events to bet on. You will be able to learn more about this in detail below.
There are many arbitrage generating events out there, but above is a short list of the ones that are highly recommended to check out.
With only two possible outcomes, this is the ideal event. The more obscure the tournament, the better your chances of finding profitable differences of opinion between sportsbooks. A large proportion of the bookies listed offer prices on all tennis matches on a regular basis. You are likely to find a significant number of arbs in tennis.
Again, with only two possible outcomes, snooker is an ideal event for looking for arbitrage opportunities, although bookies can sometimes limit bets to just a few hundred pounds.
The one-day games allow for two results only while the winter tour also allows for a draw. Cricket seems to be a bit of a weak point for many bookies; a fact that often leads to a high percentage of arbs.
- US FOOTBALL
The divisional championships can produce some lucrative arbs. Once a few games have been played, very large discrepancies can arise between sportsbooks. It is also often the case that North American adversaries take a completely different view than their European counterparts – which creates more arbitrage opportunities.
Golf produces plenty of arbs every week in 18-hole 2-ball and 3-ball matches as well as 72-hole matches. Furthermore, in the game-playing events such as the Dunhill Cup and the World Game-Playing Championship, the contestants are matched and can only win or lose. The markets at these events can be quite volatile and produce a lot of arbs.
It’s worth keeping an eye on the European fixtures each week during the football season as they can produce some lucrative opportunities. One of the advantages of football betting compared to many other sports is the very large stakes that bookies will accept. watch out for arbs not only in Home, Away, Draw markets but also the Asian Handicap and Total Goals market
- POLITICS & ENTERTAINMENT
Whether it is the next President of the United States, or the next person to leave Big Brother, if there is room for disagreement between those who disagree, there is potential for arbitration. Some very large profits can be made in these non-sporting events because the bookie has to guess a lot more than in sports.
- OTHER SPORTS When looking for risk-free returns, you should also consider
- ice hockey
If you are going to search for arbs by hand, then you have to be prepared to spend a lot of time and effort scouring individual bookmakers’ websites and odds comparison websites for prices. This can be worthwhile in some cases but it makes much more sense to use software to carry out this task as it is much faster and will free you up to do other things.
So, now that you know what to look for, let’s look at how the software at the top end of the market will help you…
There is no doubt that if you use your sports arbitrage software properly, you will make much higher profits than without it. As well as automatically finding arbitrage trades for you, it should also locate mid trades and even alert you to trades that you can use to charge any bonuses you have pending with your bookie.
Using the software will help save a lot of time. If you can rely on the software to do the searching for you, it frees you up to look elsewhere or do other things.
TIPS FOR OTHER TRADES
This is a very overlooked advantage but it is something that almost all professional traders use. When the software warns you about an arbitrage trade, it very often gives suggestions about other possible trades. For example, a football arbitrage trade may contain a price that you can use in a betting-exchange strategy instead of the arbitrage trade you have been informed about. The key issue is that the software is going to bring this to your attention faster than any other method of research. Your sports arbitrage software should also allow you to choose to accept breakeven trades ie those where the prices add up to 100% and this can be used very effectively when using bonus hunting techniques
EARLY WARNING FOR PRICE RELEASE
The best sports arbitrage software allows you to be the first to know when bookies have posted new prices on the site. This early warning system can be of great advantage in trading strategies that require you to analyze new prices as quickly as possible.
With the large amounts of data it has access to, your software should be able to provide you with very useful statistics. It should be able to show you how many arbs each bookie has had in each sport each month. This is extremely powerful for research as it lets you see exactly which accounts are most important each month. Many professional traders use this type of analysis to determine where their money should be placed ready for trading each month.
In my next article, we will see what we can do to reduce the impact of transaction fees when you trade…
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