Which African Country Has Won The Fifa World Cup Do Not Bet Against the South African Rand in 2010

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Do Not Bet Against the South African Rand in 2010

The South African economy will face a challenging 2010. While South Africa has weathered the international economic disasters of the past 18 months, it has not remained unscathed. Many indicators point to a positive 2010. The ‘science’ of Economics (in my opinion) is primarily a social science, but there are a number of positive comments and reports that I would like to refer to.

In the 28 December 2009 edition of the Bangkok Post, Michael Preiss, Senior Investment Advisor at Standard Chartered Private Bank, wrote the following: “Borrowing the US dollar to invest in the Brazilian real made a net/net return of 40%, the carry trade best since 2009, followed by the South African rand at 33%”

Given that the coming year will see a less volatile Rand, earnings such as those noted above should not be expected. However, I believe that the outlook for the Rand, and the South African economy, should not be underestimated.

On the 21st of December, the South African Reserve Bank released its latest leading indicator – showing faster growth in October than in September. The main indicator combines a range of measures, including, among others, manufacturing hours worked, building plans approved and vehicles sold. Business Day’s Michael Belby writes: “After an inconsistent start to the year, the trend has been firmly up”. Commenting on SARB’s leading indicator, Elna Moolman, group economist at Barnard Jacobs Mellet said “At the start of the year, when it started to improve, it was mainly financial market components that gave it a boost, but now it’s quite broad based. very encouraging”.

South Africa’s inflation rate is expected to moderate in 2010. According to the Stellenbosch University Bureau of Economic Research, CPI will moderate to 5.7 percent in 2010, down from 7.2 percent in 2009. In the fourth quarter of 2009, there was an increase in the Business Confidence Index Rand Merchant Bank Bureau of Economic Research. JP van der Merwe of TradeInvestSA highlights that this is the first increase since the third quarter of 2009.

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook was released in October. The IMF predicts growth of 1.7% for the SA economy in 2010. This is a modest forecast, and although it may seem like a gloomy prediction from the IMF, JP van der Merwe notes the IMF’s praise of South Africa for its fiscal policy, future growth prospects and the resilience of the South African banking sector.

The 2010 ‘africapractice survey’ was released on the 15th of December. It is a survey of business leaders across Africa. All respondents expected foreign direct investment to rise in 2010. 95% of business leaders expected their businesses to grow in the coming year. And while many respondents were optimistic about the FIFA World Cup, most felt the benefits would be limited to South Africa.

I support Jacob Zuma’s words:

“The year 2010 must be a year where, for the first time, we all convey positive messages about our country to the world – the successes and the possibilities. We must give’ r negative culture behind us.”

The South African economy will face a challenging 2010.

Despite, and in spite of, these challenges, all bets are on

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