Who Are The 32 Teams In The World Cup Is the D & L Method For Runs Adjustment Context Sensitive?

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Is the D & L Method For Runs Adjustment Context Sensitive?

The D & L method used for adjusting the required runs in a cutoff game now disallows the possibility of the second team gaining a significant advantage or disadvantage. We used to see situations where the team batting second in cut-off matches had to score the required number of runs exactly equal to the run rate of the team batting first. This gave the team batting second a significant advantage as they knew the runs they had to score.

Therefore, if the team’s batting picked up pace for the first time towards the end of the innings, they would lose an advantage. Now the D & L method adjusts the runs made based on historical data ie data collected from previous games. However, it does not focus on the current trend of the game.

For example, by virtue of the D & L method Pakistan won an ODI against India, where they were chasing 339.

In all likelihood they would have been bowled out before scoring 339 as only once has any team ever chased down more than 339 to win a match (South Africa vs Australia).

Similarly the D & L method has changed results significantly in favor of teams batting first. This is mainly due to a sudden adjustment to the required run rate once a game is shortened or shortened. If a team batting second is on course to win, then sometimes it suddenly faces a daunting target.

Also the D & L method is not good to use when matches are abandoned due to unforeseen factors such as unruly crowd, bat pitch etc., During a rain affected match, the team which batting again anticipates that they need to be familiar with the corresponding D. & L. But what happens if the game is abandoned due to unexpected reasons. The second team has no way of predicting that such events will occur.

Let us also take into account when a team that would probably have lost is declared the winner because of the D&L method. For example a team is 200 for 8 in 32 overs, it looks hopeless that the team would have reached 280 runs in 50 overs as they have 2 tender tails to follow, but now it is raining and it’ the game has been abandoned. The second team is declared the winner as they are ahead of the corresponding D&L game after 32 overs. Therefore the result of the game has been changed.

Let us also take one more example where a team which would probably have lost and is declared a winner under the D & L method. For example a team is 200 for 4 in 32 overs, it looks desperate that the team would have reached 280 runs in 50 overs as they have out-of-class batsmen to follow. Also some of the opposition bowlers are suddenly bowling the sessions well. Now it’s raining and the game has been abandoned. The second team is declared the winner as they are ahead of the corresponding D&L game after 32 overs. Therefore the result of the game has been changed.

Let’s take an example when a game stops/quits suddenly. The team batting first is 130 for no loss after 22 overs. The game is abandoned. The D & L equivalent is 131 after 22 overs. Now probably being 130 for no loss the team batting second would have gone on to win the match, but have been declared lost.

In summary, the D&L approach should not significantly change the outcome in favor of a team. Secondly we have to consider the strength of the players ie, and their current form. Considering adjustments based on historical data alone is not enough. It has to be made sensitive to the current game, the current session and the current form of players and more importantly it should not change an easily predictable original result.

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