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Football (Soccer) Betting Tip – How to Win in International Friendlies
There is nothing at stake in international friendlies. These games are of considerable importance only when they are used as a warm-up before crucial competitions such as the World Cup.
Most club managers see these friendlies as a complete nuisance. Some of them are fighting tooth and nail with the country’s manager by refusing to release their star players. There are a number of cases of players returning with injuries which have greatly jeopardized the clubs chances in the league and other competitions. The ‘club versus country’ debate is always contentious.
The conventional wisdom is to avoid betting on these friendlies as they are considered meaningless. The results are often unpredictable. But an astute punter may find value in the uncertainty.
The following factors can be considered:
1. Home Advantage Terrifying Location
Countries like Azerbaijian and Kazakhstan, etc. are not the most comfortable places to visit. How do you expect the football stars to enjoy :
a) Long flights (some countries do not have connections for direct flights).
b) Less than hygienic living environment and food.
c) Strange customs (especially if the country is predominantly of a different religion).
d) Climate (it cannot be easy to travel far from the freezing winter in Europe to play in a damp stadium in Turkey on a summer’s night).
2. Motivation
It is rather difficult to expect motivation when the games are considered meaningless. However, remember:
a) The Home team may have more motivation as they are playing for their country in front of their fans.
b) The match is more likely to be televised live especially if the Home team plays a highly ranked Away team such as England. So the Home team will be super charged.
c) Due to the live telecast, this is a particularly good opportunity for players from an ‘obscure’ country to showcase their talent, hoping to attract the attention of sports talent scouts from major European clubs.
d) The game is used to restore national pride. If the country has been beaten badly by their opponent in a previous match, there may be an incentive to treat the match as a revenge match.
3. Team Line-Up
Don’t expect key players to feature in these friendlies. Most clubs are reluctant to release their star players in case they return injured or tired. So most players who are often selected are second stringers and may not go all out themselves to reduce the risk of injury.
When most teams play carefully, most of the time it will be a boring game.
Conclusion
Most punters are only familiar with the same famous national teams. Countries they have heard little about will automatically be considered ‘not good’. However, as the results of these friendlies are unpredictable, the discerning punter can see huge value in some small dogs, especially playing at home.
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